My thoughts on NFTs for the next few years in this tweet , if you read one thing today, let it be this:Going over the fundamental use case of NFTs and also “trading them to make money”.

作者語：“回顧 NFT 的基本用例，并且繼續‘交易它們’。”

Bullet points first for those who want a TL;DR-- 

如果覺得太長請看要點：

?Best use case for NFTs remains the p2p decentralised aspect of digital item trading (collectibles, art, etc.) with transparent provenance without the physical world limitations.

?NFTs are like pieces of paper. We will have many people explore what the token can represent, in collectibles, gaming, tickets and more. It is not one or the other.

?NFT就像圖片，有很多人擴展代幣應有來作為收藏品、游戲、門票等許多用途，但這并不是它們唯一或者全部。

?Projects will try things, most will fail and some will succeed. People will lose money trying to speculate. And others will gain money accurately predicting what projects do well. You are rewarded more because you take on more risk.

?所有的項目都會作出各式各樣的嘗試，大多數會失敗，或許有些會成功。有些人會因為投機而賠錢，而另一部分人則會因為準確預測了項目的優勢而獲利，人們因為承擔更多風險而能夠獲得更多回報。

?Market euphoria and depression will come in cycles. Coming to terms with this helps separate your conviction on the tech vs. projects. Disliking X project does not mean you have to oppose “NFTs” the tech.

?市場興奮和低迷的周期出現存在一種循環，接受這個觀點有助于獨立你的信念不受技術和項目的影響，你可以不喜歡某個項目，但你不必為此反對「NFT」技術。

NUMBER ONE

Similarly, how the core use case of Crypto is decentralised p2p currency trading without middlemen, for NFTs it is the token being on the immutable blockchain that cannot be altered and is tradeable without physical world limitations such as it being damaged, lost, or stolen and requiring physical space.

同樣，加密貨幣的核心用例是如何在沒有中間人的情況下進行去中心化的 p2p 貨幣交易，對于 NFT 來說，它是不可變區塊鏈上的代幣，無法更改，并且可以在沒有物理世界限制（例如損壞、丟失或被盜以及需要物理空間）的情況下進行交易。

As the world becomes even more digital, we also have to come to terms with the fact that there are certain things only made possible digitally. Digital art is not new, but new art forms will be created in the future, and tokenization of them will be a perfect fit.

隨著世界變得更加數字化，我們也必須接受這樣一個事實：有些事情只有通過數字化才能實現。數字藝術并不新鮮，但未來會迸發出更多新的藝術形式，而它們的代幣化將是一個完美的選擇。

 "The internet has existed for ~35 years, and will exist for the rest of humanity's existence. The incredibly small period of time where you couldn't own digital items will be seen as the stone age of the internet, and considered incredibly weird by future generations."--@cobble

“互聯網已經存在了大約 35 年，并將在人類發展中繼續延續下去，這段人類未曾擁有數字物品的極短的時間，將在未來被視為互聯網的石器時代，這在后人看來將是難以理解的。”@cobble

NUMBER TWO

Pieces of paper are an incredibly powerful and versatile technology. Trying to describe exactly why that is so is pretty difficult, though, just like with NFTs, because they have so many different usecases. (h/t @swombat for this analogy).

紙是一種功能強大、用途廣泛的技術。然而，試圖準確地描述為什么會這樣是相當困難的，就像 NFT 一樣，因為它們有很多不同的用例。( 對于這個類比可以看看 @swombat)。

NFTs are like programmable digital paper. They can hold and even create art, store messages, and encapsulate different forms of music. They're excellent for recording contracts, as they can predefine future actions. They're adaptable to store anything, from personal IDs to auth tokens, and can also represent monetary values. Not all applications are sensible, just like with regular paper, but the versatility of NFTs makes them all possible.

NFT 就像可編程的數字紙。它們可以保存甚至創造藝術，存儲信息，并封裝不同形式的音樂。它們非常適合記錄合同，因為它們可以預先定義未來的動作。它們適用于存儲任何東西，從個人 ID 到身份認證代幣，也可以表示貨幣價值。并非所有的應用程序都像普通紙張一樣合理，但 NFT 的多功能性使它們成為可能。

You can think one idea is dumb (digital monkeys) while appreciating another (tradeable gaming items). The reason why the statement “NFTs are dead” will always be inaccurate is assuming that the digital programmable paper has no use case at all!

你可以認為一個想法很愚蠢 ( 數字猴子 )，同時欣賞另一個想法 ( 可交易的游戲道具 )。「NFT 已死」的說法總是不準確的原因是假設數字可編程紙根本沒有用例！

NUMBER THREE

In this free market, expect speculation on assets. This is how you will make money, and lose money. Keep in mind that the people behind these projects are not trying to make you money. Yes, you can invest in a project that you think will have more demand in the future, whether it’s a collectible or an artwork – and that is where you take on the additional risk for reward.

這個自由市場中，可以預見到對資產的投機。這就是你賺錢和賠錢的方式。請記住，這些項目背后的人并不是想讓你賺錢。是的，你可以投資一個你認為未來會有更多需求的項目，無論是收藏品還是藝術品——這就是你為獲得回報而承擔額外風險的地方。

Things will go up more than it may make sense, and can go down “more than it makes sense”. You will have outright scam projects, and failures. And on the other hand, you’ll have successful experiments where value accrual flows to the NFTs.

價格會漲得超出常理，也會跌得「超出常理」。你會遇到徹頭徹尾的騙局項目和失敗。另一方面，你會有成功的實驗，其中價值累積流向 NFT。

Do you want to make money? The people that make the most money study and understand the market! It doesn’t matter if you have millions of dollars, trying to figure out what to buy without understanding and embracing responsibility for your trades is not the strategy I would recommend. When people care less about the markets, this is when you should pay attention to get ahead of others.

你想賺錢嗎？賺錢最多的人是研究和了解市場的人！如果你有數百萬美元，在沒有理解和承擔交易責任的情況下試圖弄清楚買什么并不重要，這不是我推薦的策略。當人們不太關心市場的時候，就是你應該注意走在別人前面的時候。

NUMBER FOUR

Just like all markets, no matter how important the industry may be, you will see euphoria in it. We are seeing it with AI now. I can not tell you if the projects today will make you money or exist in the next 5 years. But I can tell you, that this programmable digital paper and concept of ownership on a public blockchain is something I can bet my time and money on, and that is where my strong thesis comes long-term.

就像所有市場一樣，不管這個行業有多重要，你都會在其中看到欣喜若狂的感覺。我們現在在人工智能上看到了這一點。我無法告訴你今天的項目是否會讓你賺錢或在未來 5 年內是否存在。但我可以告訴你，這種可編程的數字紙和公共區塊鏈上的所有權概念是我可以把我的時間和金錢押在上面的東西，這就是我的長期論文的重點。

Figure out what is important to you in this context, if it’s nothing, then don’t force a thesis. If it’s something, figure out how you want to spend your time related to that. But be open to changing that thesis when new information is presented to you. 

弄清楚在這種情況下什么對你來說是重要的，如果什么都不是，那么就不要強行寫論文。如果有什么事情，弄清楚你想如何度過與之相關的時間。但是當新的信息呈現在你面前時，你要樂于改變你的觀點。

Most people would never think this deeply about NFTs because the whole concept of them is ridiculous at first glance, and worse when people look into what is happening in the industry. Don’t fret, amongst the scams, you have real builders. Either become one of them or bet on those who have the same thesis as you. That is all you can do if you care about the industry. And if you don’t, then it’s not for you. 

大多數人都不會對 NFT 進行深入思考，因為它們的整個概念乍一看是荒謬的，當人們深入了解行業中正在發生的事情時，情況就更糟了。別擔心，在這些騙局中，有真正的建設者。要么成為他們中的一員，要么押注于那些和你有相同觀點的人。如果你關心這個行業，這就是你所能做的。如果你不喜歡，那就不適合你。

Just like all things, if it seems obvious… it’s probably not that exciting. Ignore noise and carry on building. See you in the “next bull market” –- for now, embrace the fact that everyone is calling the entire industry a scam.

所有的事情都有個共同的道理，如果一切看起來那么的顯而易見，那么它可能就不再那么具有吸引力。忽略噪音，繼續建造，「下一個牛市」再見。而現在，接受所有人都稱整個行業是騙局的事實。

注：文中素材來源于網絡公開資料，如有侵權請聯系刪除，以上內容僅代表作者個人觀點。

內容來源于網絡

編 Black   審 林蛋殼

聲明：投資有風險，入市須謹慎。本資訊不作為投資理財建議。